What a beautiful sunny weekend in Bideford!  And we've started the week off with more sunshine.  With that wind though it is still bitterly cold.

What does folklore tell us about a cold winter?  Will it be balanced by a long hot summer for North Devon?

Well

we may well decide for the sake of positive thinking that the school

summer holidays will be hot, dry and sunny like the old days but the Met Office are being more cautious.

The

short-term forecasts provided by the Met Office are extremely

accurate, providing reliable forecasts for a period of between

one to five days. We are privileged to enjoy considerable

public support for these forecasts, and to be recognised

by our peers around the world as leaders in weather forecasting.

Of course, by their nature, forecasts become less accurate

the further out we look. Although we can identify general

patterns of weather, the science does not exist to allow

an exact forecast beyond five days, or to absolutely promise

a certain type of weather. As a result, ‘seasonal

forecasts’ cannot be as precise as our short-term forecasts.

The UK is one of the hardest places to provide forecasts

for because of our size and location. The weather in temperate

climates such as the UK is very hard to forecast much beyond

a week.

The Met Office is working hard to develop the science of

long range forecasting, including for the UK, and will continue

at the forefront of innovation in this area.

We take seriously our responsibility to provide the best

possible service to the public. Although long range

forecasts are vital in some parts of the world, and can be

useful for some specialists, such as insurers and energy

traders, we know that they are of limited use to the public – for

example they are not something that could be used to plan

a holiday.

In our customer research the public have told us they would

like a monthly outlook. We have therefore decided to stop

issuing a UK ‘seasonal forecast’ four times a

year. Instead, we will now publish a monthly outlook,

updated on a weekly basis.

Although the limitations in science mean monthly forecasts

are themselves a developing area of forecasting and will

therefore be less precise than our short-term forecasts,

the public have told us that a monthly outlook would be of

use to them.