2013 Arkle Trophy tips Fago to go far

Sprinter Sacre was a prohibitive odds-on chance when landing

last season's Arkle Trophy and his stablemate Simonsig has a similar

stranglehold on this year's race.

The

seven-year-old, himself a winner at last season's Festival when running

away with the Neptune Novices' Hurdle, has made a smooth transition to

fences this term, winning twice in the space of six days at Ascot and

Kempton by a combined distance of 84 lengths.

Some

would crab the form of those wins, which came at odds of 2/9 and 1/8

respectively, but his most recent success, when giving the 148-rated

Hinterland 11lb and a 35-length thrashing, was no mean feat and he was

pretty much foot perfect on each occasion.

It's

no wonder then that bookmakers have him so short for the Arkle – they

tend to have long memories – although news that he is to miss the Game

Spirit Chase due to an unsatisfactory trachea wash and go straight for

the Arkle could see him ease out a little from the current best of 5/6.

Even

so, I'm not in the habit of tipping up short-priced horses and

especially this far in advance. For one, he's got to get there in one

piece, which should never be taken for granted, and he may well start at

around the same price on the day. 

We can get

stuck in then, should we wish, but for the purpose of an ante post tip

you're ideally looking for a horse with the potential to shorten, and

the one that takes the eye is the Paul Nicholls-trained FAGO. 

The

ex-French gelding made a successful British debut when hacking up over

2m1f at Newbury last month, giving the impression there was plenty more

improvident to come. Unusually for a Nicholls runner, he blew quite hard

after the race and that's a sure sign he was undercooked.

I'm

expecting far more the polished article when he runs in the Kingmaker

Novices' at Warwick this weekend and while there are some decent sorts

entered, I'd fully expect him to win it and in the process put himself

bang in the picture for the Arkle.

Certainly,

his current rating of 150 entitles him to go close and he may well

improve that this weekend. The fact he stays a bit further than 2m -

didn't quite home over 2m6f in France – is a real plus as the Arkle can

be a brutal race and stamina always comes into play up the Cheltenham

hill.

At 10/1 with Paddy Power,

he's got to be worth a bet, although I can't let any Arkle piece go

without  a mention of Overturn, who must be one of the most versatile

horses in training, having won so many big races on the flat and over

hurdles – and now over fences (three times).

His

latest success at Musselburgh was perhaps his most polished yet, even

though his main rival probably ran below par. Still, you can only beat

what's put in front of you and his jumping was a joy to behold at the

Scottish track.

If he gets to Cheltenham in the

same sort of form, and he has a good track record in that respect, he

must take all the beating. I can see him duelling with Simonsig coming

round the turn with Fago a couple of lengths adrift and going well...

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